Wednesday, 22. October 2014 - 15:10
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31. 03. 13. - 15:00
As the UK shudders under temperatures 5 to 10 degrees Celsius below normal levels for this time of year a Russian scientist has repeated warnings that we are heading for a mini Ice Age.
The Met Office has warned that temperatures will remain below average until about 20 April nit just here but in the rest of the world.
German meteorologists say that the start of 2013 is now the coldest in 208 years - and now German media has quoted Russian scientist Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov from the St. Petersburg Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory as showing it is proof as he said earlier that we are heading for a "Mini Ice Age."
Talking to German media the scientist who first made his prediction in 2005 said that after studying sunspots and their relationship with climate change on Earth, we are now on an "unavoidable advance towards a deep temperature drop."
Building on observations made by English astronomer Walter Maunder, Dr Abdussamatov, said he had found that the Earth cools and warms in a 200-year cycles.
The last big freeze known as the Little Ice Age was between 1650 and 1850 which he said coincided with Maunders findings that there had been no sunspots between 1645 and 1715.
Writing in his blog, Abdussamatov said: "The last global decrease of temperature (the most cold phase of the Little Ice Age) was observed not only in Europe, North America and Greenland, but also in any other part of the world during the Maunder minimum of sunspot activity and of the total solar irradiance in 16451715 years.
"All channels in the Netherlands were frozen, glaciers were on the advance in Greenland and people were forced to leave their settlements, inhabited for several centuries.
"The Thames river in London and Seine in Paris were frozen over every year. Humanity has always been prospering during the warm periods and suffering during the cold ones. The climate has never been and will never be stable."
His warning that cold weather would hit prosperity follows news that Britain is heading for an unprecedented triple-dip recession as economists warned that the severe weather gripping much of Britain threatened a second successive quarter of falling national output.
Just days after the chancellor predicted that the UK would narrowly avoid a second successive quarter of negative growth the official definition of recession experts warned that the combination of heavy snow and sub-zero temperatures might be a crucial factor in whether the economy expanded in the first three months of 2013.
Now the Russian scientists says the new mini Ice Age will begin next year and will last for 200 years.
"The tendency of decrease in the global Earth temperature started in 20062008 will temporarily pause in 20102012.
"The increase in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) within a short 11-year cycle 24 is expected to temporarily compensate the decrease in TSI within the ongoing 2-century variation.
Only the decrease in TSI within the ongoing 11-year cycle 24 accompanied by continued decrease of its 2-century component in 20132015 will lead to stable subsequent cooling of our planet, which is expected to reach its minimum in the phase of a deep cooling by 20552060.
"The cooling can be similar to the one observed in the whole Europe, North America and Greenland in 16451715 in the period of Maunder minimum of solar luminosity and sunspot activity when the temperature will fall by 11.5 Celsius degrees down to the mark of the so-called Maunder minimum.
"The regular period of climatic minimum (the stage of global cooling) will last for approximately 4565 years and the new warming will eventually come afterwards within the regular 2-century solar cycle.
"The deep cooling is expected to be regularly replaced by warming only by the beginning of 22nd century.
"A forecast of the global cooling by the middle of the 21st century and of the new 200-year cycle followed by global warming in the beginning of the 22nd century is shown on the figure."
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